William Morrison

That has always been the perceived wisdom. My own experience running a model project at Air Cadets is that mostly (not always), youngsters pay absolutely no attention to how well a kit goes together, or how well that the parts fit. The key to somebody continuing in the hobby is how much fun they have building something, if they have a mentor/tutor to help them through any tricky bits, so much the better. My optimum kits for use with the model project would be cheaply acquired Matchbox, because generally speaking they are well engineered and drama free to build, but it's not a prime requirement. I like the original Japanese consortium given the poor detail of some of their kits, notably the early 1/700 Aoshima and Fujimi waterline series. Both companies have drastically retooled their lines, and , now, their kits are every bit as good (if not better) than those of their competitors. Similarly, the later Airfix 1/600 kits such as the KGV and Repulse, were quite excellent. Their earlier kits, such as the Suffolk and Bismarck, were horrid. Perhaps, as a starter scale, Airfix could follow a similar path. As for the Daring having small and fiddly parts, 1/700 would be smaller still.

As most you know by now, I prefer to model sailing ships, especially the warships of the Napoleonic War/ French Revolution, and the Anglo-Dutch Wars. I have said that Airfix once produced the most interesting range of sailing ship model kits that were much better than most other kits of that genre. Indeed, of all the old manufacturers who produced them, only Airfix consistently produced accurate models of historic ships. Heller and Revell were notorious for using the molds of one particular ship, such as HMAV Bounty, making slight modifications and re-releasing it as HMS Beagle, Cutty Sark as Thermopylae, etc. Heller was even more notorious for this practice. Only Airfix stayed true to historic accuracy. That said, I would love to see Airfix take the lead by offering actual new ship models of ships never before manufactured as model kits. Injection-molded plastic would be excellent, as would resin and mixed media kits.

I'm afraid that when we look at the release dates of Airfix ships then maybe they have... Classic Ships (various scales) 1955 S.S. Southern Cross 1.480 1962 Endeavour 1.120 1963 Royal Sovereign 1.168 1964 HMS Revenge 1.144 1965 HMS Victory 1.180 1966 PS Great Western 1.180 1967 Cutty Sark 1.130 1969 Discovery 1.144 HMS Prince 1.180 1970 Mayflower 1.96 1972 Wasa 1.144 1973 St. Louis 1.144 1980 HMS Bounty 1.87 1/600 1960 HMS Cossack HMS Hood HMS Tiger HMS Victorious 1961 HMS Campbeltown HMS Daring HMS Nelson SS Canberra 1962 Bismarck HMS Warspite RMS Queen Elizabeth 1963 HMS Devonshire SS France 1964 HMS Hotspur HMS Suffolk RMS Mauretania Scharnhorst 1965 HMS Ajax 1966 HMS Ark Royal 1967 MV Free Enterprise II 1968 HMS Fearless Tirpitz 1969 RMS Queen Elizabeth II 1970 HMS Iron Duke HMS Leander 1971 Graf Spee Rommel 1972 HMS Amazon HMS Manxman 1973 HMS Belfast Moskva 1975 Narvik Class Destroyer Prinz Eugen 1978 USS Forrestal 1981 HMS King George V 1982 HMS Repulse 2004 Queen Mary 2 1/350 2009 HMS Illustrious 2010 Trafalgar Class Submarine 2012 HMS Daring Type 45 No Classic Sailing Ships for 37 years = genre abandonned No 1/600 since 2004 (although the scale was effectively abandonned in 1982). A dabble in the water with 1/350. Nothing for 5 years, maybe sales failed to meet expectations. I'd love Airfix to resurrect the 1/600 and CSS ranges. Make the scale/genre their own. Expand the 1/350 range (maybe the Queen Elizabeth carriers will re-open the series). One of the strengths of Airfix was its broad product range, and it could be again. I sincerely hope it does again. Airfix used to offer arguably the best and most interesting range of sailing ship models, but how many releases of the same ships can we purchase? We need others! And, the range of 20th century RN ships was excellent but Airfix failed to keep pace with new technologies and new standards of detailing. Also, the Chinese manufacturers have taken over RN subjects offering a far greater range with far greater levels of detail. Airfix needs to step up!

Who better than Airfix to begin an extended series of 1/350 and 1/600 models of the 20th century Royal Navy (at least!), instead of leaving it to the Chinese? Who better than to begin an extended series of RN navies during the Pax Britannica, the French Revolution & Napoleonic Wars, and the ships of the Anglo-Dutch Wars? We are talking about over 400 years of Royal Navy dominance and fame, all ignored by the lobe British producer. It's like they have forgotten their heritage!

All I can say with certainty is that he said "500". As I have previously stated, that number seems low to me as well. That said, let's move on. Manufacturing companies need to either stay current with the times in terms of quality, scales, and manufacturing technologies. Airfix seems to have done so, at least concerning airplanes. However, they really have done nothing to cater to the ship modeling community, staying with old molds and outdated scales. Nor, have they added anything new to their line of kits or updated the kits already in their inventory. They simply offer the same kits repeatedly, whether they are the 1/600 series RN of WWII, one ship of WWI, one modern (1960's) Soviet ship, one ship from West Germany, and one U.S. aircraft carrier, or their venturing into the world of 1/350 ship models with three rather mediocre releases of contemporary RN warships. Their once outstanding line of sailing ships has fallen by the wayside with nothing new in over fifty years. It is no wonder that their ships do not sell. Builders and collectors either have them all or have moved on to other companies' offerings. They have offered nothing new to entice ship modelers, nothing at all. When they do release a ship or two, they are the same tired old products of yesterdecade, with no upgrades, no retooling, no anything. It is a bad joke. Airfix has neglected their ship modeling customer base, and that base has largely moved on. It is a real shame.

I think the break-even when they did the 1/72 TSR2 was in the region of 10,000 (they actually produced 16-20,000) and that was on a comparatively cheap and more popular subject. I agree that the 500 number seems low, but that is exactly what he said. I also understand the comments about the risk of failing to sell a newly manufactured anything. But, every manufacturing company of anything has had those failures. Indeed, that is a part of the risk involved with capitalism. Capitalism means taking risks. Investors do not usually get rich by focusing only on Blue Chip stocks, any more than they do by investing only in low-yield savings accounts. One must take chances, albeit educated chances. Therefore, I challenge Airfix and any other plastic model manufacturer to conduct surveys in the MSW site, Fine Scale Modeler site, etc (those sites with huge populations of members). And, I would invest my own money in this endeavor.

But any company can fail on which they produce to sell. Unfortunately, you're quite correct. However, while the market can be uncertain, the only way to prosper is to take chances. While it is a guarantee that a given company will not be able to sell that which they don't produce, they certainly can profit by producing a desired product. One executive at Revell of Germany told me last year that sailing ship model kits will not appeal to RoG's customers in Europe, and that they need at least 500 sales to make a profit of a new kit. I belong to a global ship modeling club in which most members build sailing ships routinely. The club numbers over 20,000 members. There is certainly a tremendous potential for a given manufacturer to reap a fortune in profits if they offered kits of sailing ships that have never been offered before. It is a large enough potential customer base that has largely been ignored by the manufacturers. Airfix could lead the way in reaching this potential huge customer base.

Well, Revell recently released a new sailing ship model . . . yet another HMS Victory in the odd scale of 1/450. That makes a grand total of nine different kits of that ship. Who needs it? As an avid sailing ship modeler, I will not purchase that kit. Had they produced a larger kit of a different sailing warship, one not previously manufactured by any company, I would have been first in line to make that purchase. I reiterate; no company can sell that which they fail to produce. Bill

But they are! Trumpeter offers two versions of the USS San Francisco, both of which have become standards on various websites. In the old days, Revell packaged the four ships of the Iowa class by using the same molds, as well as the Midway class carriers, the Forrestal class carriers (with very minor changes), and the carriers of the Essex class. Aurora did the same. I do not believe that Airfix ever did so, but that was the standard until the customer base became more sophisticated and discriminating.

Indeed, one could take Fanderson for example, who's membership would no doubt like to see some new kits from Captain Scarlet or UFO. Then there's MAFVA, who's membership would probably support the idea of more small scale armour. Then there's the RPSB, who would possibily welcome some additions to the 1:1 bird range. The Britism Medical Council could possibility weight in with the need for more anatomical models given their uses in medicinal teaching and training. As David says, ask any interest group what they want and - surprise! - they want their interests respresented. But they don't have to sell them, the trade does. I'd also love an RO5 Eagle as dad served on her. With respect, a special interest group numbering over 25,500 members represents a very sizable interest group of prospective customers. Survey them for their desires, narrow the list of recommended kits and resurvey, and produce a new product based on solid research.

John, Well said! Anyway, I agree with your points, especially the comment about Airfix marketing the Walrus. I never understood Airfix's decision to go after the 1/350 ship modeling crowd by modeling modern RN ships. I bought them, but they are sitting on my shelf awaiting the time when I can spark an interest in them. Given that Airfix has always been the representative British model manufacturer, and that their primary (albeit limited) focus has been on British ships, it does seem a shame that they allowed the Chinese to take the lead in manufacturing British warships. Trumpeter went after Hood, Repulse, two versions of Dreadnought, Ark Royal, Huron, Manchester, and Belfast in 1/350; Two versions of Hood, Renown, Repulse, Queen Elizabeth (two versions), Warspite (two versions), Barham, Valiant, Malaya, and two versions of Dreadnought in 1/700. The Japanese company Tamiya has the KGV and PoW in 1/350, and 1/700 versions of those two ships as well as Nelson, Rodney, Hood, and Repulse in 1/700. Zvesda from Russia has released a version of Dreadnought in 1/350. It really seems as if Airfix has dropped the ball and has missed the widespread interest in WW1/WWII RN warships. Back to market research . . . while it's certainly true that we all have many interests in the realm of ship modeling, it would be a terrific idea for the manufacturers to survey the membership of the different ship modeling sites. While there will probably be some overlap of members being in different clubs or sites, ignoring the over 25,500 strong membership of sites like Model Ship World seems shortsighted to me. New products resulting from surveying these groups could result in huge profits! Bill

As I said in a previous post, it's not a one-size-fits-all market. Some companies have better traction with some subjects because of their retail reach or markets. Aoshima was mentioned - they clearly have more luck with ships than aircraft. Tamiya do ships, but they don't small small-scale armour like Dragon, Trumpeter and Revell. The list goes on, you will always find model companies that have areas and markets where sales and brand identity are strong for some subject matter but not others. I think they proved the "will" with the 1/350 new tool kits - the fact that they've mostly now disappeared from the range and have not been followed up with more of the same probably tells its own story. I don't think it's a case they didn't try hard enough, they clearly did, but if you've dipped your toe into a market and it's not bouyant enough to float, where is the business sense in investing more of the same. And, alas, model kit companies down the ages have been burned by modellers talking up subjects as being the sure-fire kit that everyone wants, only for it not to pan out that way. I'd suggest googling 'Fine Scale Modeler poll' and the stories behind the /148 Catalina, Ju 52, Vigilante and 1/72 Stratocruiser. Me personally? I'd love to see the 1/600 range expanded because Airfix have provenence in this scale, but you know people will then say that it should have been 1/700 or 1/350. Somewhere down the line there will always be the "ah but, it would have sold if only...". Hate to say it, but the aircraft modellers are most probably more consistent in their purchases, and 1/72 and 1/48 are easier scales to cater for. And when it comes to business decisions, this whole Field of Dreams thing about "make them, and they will come" doesn't really make good business sense when you've already done that and they didn't come. Plus, long story short, the trade know what sells better than any anecdotal conjecture on any modelling forum. If the trade are saying "those ships of yours didn't shift, can we have more aircraft?" the response isn't "no, you'll get more ships until the market appears", because no sane retailer is going to take on more stock they had trouble shifting in the first instance. If the ships have gone but the aircraft dominate, it's because the aircraft modellers and market is more easier cater for, more relaible and - more crucially - more profitable. And ultimately, it's a business, not a service. John points out that the manufacturers have the appropriate research on which to base its decisions. Yet, I can recall never having seen a survey from Airfix about ship choices, let alone sailing ships. Indeed, I have seen many surveys about desired ship models, none of which asked about sailing ships. I sincerely doubt that there is real research that pertains with this topic. There is ample evidence that wood sailing ship kits sell regularly for over $1,000. For example, the Amati HMS Vanguard has been selling at around $1,350.00 for almost ten years. The Caldercraft "Nelson's Navy" kits continue to sell for that kind of price as well. I'm sure that many would like to have the opportunity to purchase these ships in plastic for around $50.00, but no manufacturer has asked us. Well to to be fair, Airfix do run a suggestions list each year at Scale Model World, and there is a wishlist section on these forums, so there's clearly some avenue of feedback, maybe you've missed that. And kit companies do a lot of market research into new products across broad range of factors - just because they haven't consulted you or anyone you know personally, doesn't mean they don't do thorough market research.But, as I said earlier, kit companies are usually guided mostly by the trade, by sales because that's the sharp end, that's where opinion has to give way to fact, i.e. the numbers being sold and the profits therein. And if the trade don't reorder items because they are slow to move off of shelves, that's usually the precursor to them being dropped from a kit range. I didn't accuse or bellitle anyone and I'm far from denying any "thorough research", but we who are the "we" and "us" to be consulted? You see the context there is that far from any "small circle" being irrelevent, every small circle is relevent and it's as relevent as the next small circle - but there's a lot of small circles all competing for attention, all demanding that kit companies listen/consult them because their particular interests or scales are where the investment should be poured into. I've worked in the industry now for nearly thirty years, my "assumptions" are based on first hand experience. There is a simple formula in all this - sales equals more of the same, lack of sales means less of the same. That's it. And that's all dependent on individual kit companies budgets, economies of scale and how *their* markets work for *them*. I go back to my original point and that is that the lack of ships most probably reflects a lack of interest from the trade because of a lack of sales. That's it. I'd personally love to see more 1/600 stuff to flesh out the range, but if you're looking at R&D budgets, weighing up how many bankable sellers you'd have to bounce in order to risk some more ships, whilst looking at the sales from the last attempt to stimulate a market, and the trade aren't asking for more ship kits anyway... John, I sincerely apologise if I seem thin-skinned. But, I belong to an organization of over 25,500 ship modelers of all genres (wood, paper, plastic, resin, etc.) This is the Nautical Research Guild that has its own associated website called Model Ship World in which ship models the world over post their models. The section for plastic model ships is quite extensive, and it includes sailing ships. I sincerely believe that if Airfix were to survey these members, they would have a sufficiently large sample size from which to interpret data in order to make policy decisions. I have never seen Airfix do so, but their sailing ships are widely regarded among the best. In other words, there is extensive, global interest in new kits, including sailing ships. Airfix needs to ask. 25,500 ship modelers belonging to one organization focusing only on ships of all types indicates a large potential market. Bill

As I said in a previous post, it's not a one-size-fits-all market. Some companies have better traction with some subjects because of their retail reach or markets. Aoshima was mentioned - they clearly have more luck with ships than aircraft. Tamiya do ships, but they don't small small-scale armour like Dragon, Trumpeter and Revell. The list goes on, you will always find model companies that have areas and markets where sales and brand identity are strong for some subject matter but not others. I think they proved the "will" with the 1/350 new tool kits - the fact that they've mostly now disappeared from the range and have not been followed up with more of the same probably tells its own story. I don't think it's a case they didn't try hard enough, they clearly did, but if you've dipped your toe into a market and it's not bouyant enough to float, where is the business sense in investing more of the same. And, alas, model kit companies down the ages have been burned by modellers talking up subjects as being the sure-fire kit that everyone wants, only for it not to pan out that way. I'd suggest googling 'Fine Scale Modeler poll' and the stories behind the /148 Catalina, Ju 52, Vigilante and 1/72 Stratocruiser. Me personally? I'd love to see the 1/600 range expanded because Airfix have provenence in this scale, but you know people will then say that it should have been 1/700 or 1/350. Somewhere down the line there will always be the "ah but, it would have sold if only...". Hate to say it, but the aircraft modellers are most probably more consistent in their purchases, and 1/72 and 1/48 are easier scales to cater for. And when it comes to business decisions, this whole Field of Dreams thing about "make them, and they will come" doesn't really make good business sense when you've already done that and they didn't come. Plus, long story short, the trade know what sells better than any anecdotal conjecture on any modelling forum. If the trade are saying "those ships of yours didn't shift, can we have more aircraft?" the response isn't "no, you'll get more ships until the market appears", because no sane retailer is going to take on more stock they had trouble shifting in the first instance. If the ships have gone but the aircraft dominate, it's because the aircraft modellers and market is more easier cater for, more relaible and - more crucially - more profitable. And ultimately, it's a business, not a service. Yet, Airfix does keep re-releasing its ships, even its sailing ships. They always have the HMS Victory available, yet, if I already have two or three of them, there is no reason to purchase more of them. I remember having this discussion with someone at Airfix several years ago. He pointed out that Airfix was releasing two new sailing ships; the HMS Endeavor of 60 years ago, and the Mary Rose, a new kit. I informed him that I already had a copule of Endeavors in the stash, but that many of my friends and I were very exceited about the Mary Rose until we found out that it was in 1/400 scale and had only 28 parts. We bought it anyway just to encourage the industry, but it was a disappointing release at best. We had hoped for a serious model not a toy. John points out that the manufacturers have the appropriate research on which to base its decisions. Yet, I can recall never having seen a survey from Airfix about ship choices, let alone sailing ships. Indeed, I have seen many surveys about desired ship models, none of which asked about sailing ships. I sincerely doubt that there is real research that pertains with this topic. There is ample evidence that wood sailing ship kits sell regularly for over $1,000. For example, the Amati HMS Vanguard has been selling at around $1,350.00 for almost ten years. The Caldercraft "Nelson's Navy" kits continue to sell for that kind of price as well. I'm sure that many would like to have the opportunity to purchase these ships in plastic for around $50.00, but no manufacturer has asked us. John, you accuse me of making assumptions; I accuse you of the same. You assume that I am among only a few who want such ships. You assume that there are few who share my interests, and you belittle many people that I have cited in my small circle as being irrelevant. All I am recommending is that Airfix ask us about that which we would like to see. I want them to conduct thorough research among people who share these interests. You seem to want to deny us even that. Bill

I do "get it", but then I'm also looking at the numbers and - with the best will in the world - you knowing 100 people isn't really a strong basis for any kit manufacturer to invest hundreds of thousands into tooling. Plus you've answered your own question when you say "Trumpeter, Dragon, and the Japanese manufacturers have risen to the occassion and have given us new products, but the scope of those products seem to be limited to 20th century ships." There you go, if they thought the kinds of models wanted by you and the 100 people you know, would sell, they would make them because it's a business, not a service. No it's unreasonable to ask, but then again it's not unreasonable to ask whether you and the 100 people you know are a big enough market to take a punt on. Personally speaking, I'd say no. And kit companies have access to the numbers that tell them what sells and what doesn't. It's very easy for modellers of partiulicar genres or interests to paint the market in their own image and think they want/need/demand is somehow what everyone else wants and be profitable. Sadly, that isn't always the case. You wasked where have all the ships gone? They've gone away, because 101 people probably wasn't enough to suppport them when tens of thousands are buying aircraft. Where have all the ships gone? They've gone to Tamiya, Trumpeter, Dragon, Academy, Revell, Hasegawa, Aoshima,Italeri, Heller, and Fujimi. I'm sure there are other odd companies out there such as KiTech Lindberg, and others, but these are the largest and most common. Airfix has "missed the boat," so to speak, and the others keep releasing new products at a rapid rate. They would not do so if there wasn't a market for these products. The market exists; Airfix has ignored it.

You are right. However, if I know 100 people, and someone else knows 100 people, and so forth, then there could be thousands of people who want new ship model kits. You are assuming that Airfix has done in-depth market research and that there are no ship modelers "out there" who want new products. The fact is that we exist, and we exist in numbers sufficient to generate profits for new products as evidenced by the profits being reaped by the other manufacturers. There would be no new kits if there was no market. Yet, we prove time and again that we do exist in more than sufficient numbers. I seriously doubt that Airfix has done thorough research. They do, in fact, keep releasing their tired old line of largely innacurate ships and expect us to keep buying them. Their releases help to create a self-fulfilling prophesy. Offer no new or newly tooled ships and there will be no buyers. Then assume that there is no interest, so there is no action taken to improve upon the 1950s-era primitive kits. I notice that Airfix keeps releasing newly-molded aircraft kits. I will make an assumption; if Airfix were to treat the aircraft modelers the same as they do ship modelers by doing nothing more than re-releasing the old 1950s-era kits, their sales would decline exponentially with the advent of competition around the world. They would go out of business. Bill Morrison