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Where have all the ships gone, Mr Airfix?


RussellE

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All the larger Airfix 1:600 ships float really well.  When I was about 11 I used to float the Victorious, Nelson, BIsmark and Tirpitz.  THey needed a weight inside to get the balance right.  The battle to sink the bismark was fought many times in our bath!  

The smaller models were too topheavy to float upright.

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 I bet they don't float well either.

This is my point.  I can't tell you how often we ship modelers have been burned by reading the "New Kit" sections of the various modeling magazines only to discover that the new model we had been hearing about is yet another Bismarck, Missouri, Yamato, Victory, Cutty Sark, or Constitution.  We have those ships! Why would we need another? Give me something new. 

Who is the "we"?

 

The thing is, because it's not new to you, doesn't mean it's not new to someone else. The reason why kit companies recycle the same subjects is not only because they sell but there is - in my personal opinion - a higher turnover from the casual market than there is from modellers who say "got that, what's next?".

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Jonathan,

The "we" are the many of us who have been doing this for a long time.  I personally know of over 100 people who have been building the same ships repeatedly since the early 1960s, or over 50 years.  Don't you get it?  We want new products!  We do not want the same tired products that the ship modeling industry seems to believe we want.  Admittedly, companies like Trumpeter, Dragon, and the Japanese manufacturers have risen to the occassion and have given us new products, but the scope of those products seem to be limited to 20th century ships.  Airfix has largely ignored we ship builders.  Their focus has gone from being one of offering the best selection early in the 1960s to being an also-ran among ship modelers.

Granted, a novice to modeling ships might be satisfied with current selections.  However, we veterans of this subject are being ignored.  Imagine if Airfix had kept its airplane kits molded to 1950s standards; they would be out of business.  They would sell nothing.  All we want are ship model kits from Airfix that reflect contemporary standards of quality and that offer a similar variety of subjects.  Is that unreasonable to ask?

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This has become a circular argument. We might all wish that Airfix issued the sort of kits that you describe -  personally I'd love an SS Great Britain or an HMS Warrior - but unless Airfix feel that there's any profit it in it it's not going to happen. You need a production run that's measured in thousands, possibly tens of thousands to keep the price within the bounds of an average Airfix buyer, not a few hundred. Even if you manufacture the kits, you will still need to persuade your distributors and retailers that they will sell and that it's worthwhile their stocking them.

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And that's where web fora come in; Ok, you can make a case that we're self-selecting and hence not representative, but it's cheap market research (look at the fora and find the "most requested types") and you can then honestly say things like "people have been asking for a kit of the RFA Peter Mandleson" (The fleet's new oiler) or whatever.

You can even get guys like me who think it a little deeper and say how you can get multiple variants from a single tool.

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I buy most of my airfix models on e-bay therse days it's a better selection than here here but for ships I try to build the class but after 5 Warspites (Queen Elizabeth class) 5 Prince of Wales (KGV class) 2 Nelsons (Admirla Class what can you do?  Luckily the H class destroyers (HMS Hotspur kit) was near enough as to make no never mind, to the G class that they now get called.

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Jonathan,

The "we" are the many of us who have been doing this for a long time.  I personally know of over 100 people who have been building the same ships repeatedly since the early 1960s, or over 50 years.  Don't you get it?  We want new products!  We do not want the same tired products that the ship modeling industry seems to believe we want.  Admittedly, companies like Trumpeter, Dragon, and the Japanese manufacturers have risen to the occassion and have given us new products, but the scope of those products seem to be limited to 20th century ships.  Airfix has largely ignored we ship builders.  Their focus has gone from being one of offering the best selection early in the 1960s to being an also-ran among ship modelers.

Granted, a novice to modeling ships might be satisfied with current selections.  However, we veterans of this subject are being ignored.  Imagine if Airfix had kept its airplane kits molded to 1950s standards; they would be out of business.  They would sell nothing.  All we want are ship model kits from Airfix that reflect contemporary standards of quality and that offer a similar variety of subjects.  Is that unreasonable to ask?

I do "get it", but then I'm also looking at the numbers and - with the best will in the world - you knowing 100 people isn't really a strong basis for any kit manufacturer to invest hundreds of thousands into tooling. Plus you've answered your own question when you say "Trumpeter, Dragon, and the Japanese manufacturers have risen to the occassion and have given us new products, but the scope of those products seem to be limited to 20th century ships."

 

There you go, if they thought the kinds of models wanted by you and the 100 people you know, would sell, they would make them because it's a business, not a service. No it's unreasonable to ask, but then again it's not unreasonable to ask whether you and the 100 people you know are a big enough market to take a punt on. Personally speaking, I'd say no.

 

 

And kit companies have access to the numbers that tell them what sells and what doesn't. It's very easy for modellers of partiulicar genres or interests to paint the market in their own image and think they want/need/demand is somehow what everyone else wants and be profitable. Sadly, that isn't always the case.

 

You wasked where have all the ships gone? They've gone away, because 101 people probably wasn't enough to suppport them when tens of thousands are buying aircraft.

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Edit:

I meant to say "No it's not unreasonable to ask..."

 

But equally it's not unreasonable for any kit company to look at it's balance sheet and think "we'll invest in what sells rather than trying to chase a market we're told will appear if we make the right kits..."

You are right. However, if I know 100 people, and someone else knows 100 people, and so forth, then there could be thousands of people who want new ship model kits.  You are assuming that Airfix has done in-depth market research and that there are no ship modelers "out there" who want new products.  The fact is that we exist, and we exist in numbers sufficient to generate profits for new products as evidenced by the profits being reaped by the other manufacturers.  There would be no new kits if there was no market. Yet, we prove time and again that we do exist in more than sufficient numbers.  I seriously doubt that Airfix has done thorough research. They do, in fact, keep releasing their tired old line of largely innacurate ships and expect us to keep buying them.

Their releases help to create a self-fulfilling prophesy.  Offer no new or newly tooled ships and there will be no buyers.  Then assume that there is no interest, so there is no action taken to improve upon the 1950s-era primitive kits.

I notice that Airfix keeps releasing newly-molded aircraft kits. I will make an assumption; if Airfix were to treat the aircraft modelers the same as they do ship modelers by doing nothing more than re-releasing the old 1950s-era kits, their sales would decline exponentially with the advent of competition around the world. They would go out of business.

Bill Morrison

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Jonathan,

The "we" are the many of us who have been doing this for a long time.  I personally know of over 100 people who have been building the same ships repeatedly since the early 1960s, or over 50 years.  Don't you get it?  We want new products!  We do not want the same tired products that the ship modeling industry seems to believe we want.  Admittedly, companies like Trumpeter, Dragon, and the Japanese manufacturers have risen to the occassion and have given us new products, but the scope of those products seem to be limited to 20th century ships.  Airfix has largely ignored we ship builders.  Their focus has gone from being one of offering the best selection early in the 1960s to being an also-ran among ship modelers.

Granted, a novice to modeling ships might be satisfied with current selections.  However, we veterans of this subject are being ignored.  Imagine if Airfix had kept its airplane kits molded to 1950s standards; they would be out of business.  They would sell nothing.  All we want are ship model kits from Airfix that reflect contemporary standards of quality and that offer a similar variety of subjects.  Is that unreasonable to ask?

I do "get it", but then I'm also looking at the numbers and - with the best will in the world - you knowing 100 people isn't really a strong basis for any kit manufacturer to invest hundreds of thousands into tooling. Plus you've answered your own question when you say "Trumpeter, Dragon, and the Japanese manufacturers have risen to the occassion and have given us new products, but the scope of those products seem to be limited to 20th century ships."

 

There you go, if they thought the kinds of models wanted by you and the 100 people you know, would sell, they would make them because it's a business, not a service. No it's unreasonable to ask, but then again it's not unreasonable to ask whether you and the 100 people you know are a big enough market to take a punt on. Personally speaking, I'd say no.

 

 

And kit companies have access to the numbers that tell them what sells and what doesn't. It's very easy for modellers of partiulicar genres or interests to paint the market in their own image and think they want/need/demand is somehow what everyone else wants and be profitable. Sadly, that isn't always the case.

 

You wasked where have all the ships gone? They've gone away, because 101 people probably wasn't enough to suppport them when tens of thousands are buying aircraft.

Where have all the ships gone?  They've gone to Tamiya, Trumpeter, Dragon, Academy, Revell, Hasegawa, Aoshima,Italeri, Heller, and Fujimi. I'm sure there are other odd companies out there such as KiTech Lindberg, and others, but these are the largest and most common.  Airfix has "missed the boat," so to speak, and the others keep releasing new products at a rapid rate.  They would not do so if there wasn't a market for these products. The market exists; Airfix has ignored it.

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The market exists; Airfix has ignored it.

I'm afraid Airfix abandonned ship back in the mid 80s. The Heller 1/400 reboxings were a turgid toe in the water, and the 1/350 range of 3 was a poor attempt. Quite why they gave up on their traditional and unique 1/600 scale is a mystery. Has the boat long gone? Well no-one else has stepped into 600th with a vengeance. Airfix could reclaim the market with four or five strategic kits that would virtually guarantee a good return and help finance a resurgance of the range. But you don't get anywhere without that first step...

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I do have a couple of questions, because I still stand by my assertions that any company has to make a profit to survive to produce new models. In short, however predictable they are, it's the Spitfires that make the money to invest in other kits that might not be so profitable; or take a longer time for a return. Firstly I must emphasise I am not knocking anyone on this site, far less any shipbuilders here. However.

 

First, do any of the ship modellers here buy the ship models from other companies; and how many? If you don't buy many, why not?

 

Second, I know Trumpeter have produced a fantastic looking 1/48 submarine. Everyone's cooing over it and saying what a beast, also how beautiful it is. I've seen photos of it. It looks gorgeous, it looks a triumph of the mould maker's art. I've also seen it barely fitting into an estate car with the seats folded. All well and good, it has to be a long term return for Trumpeter methinks, and good luck to them, they deserve to succeed. I guess they must have looked at the market first else they'd have gone nowhere near it, but at around £400, who here would buy one - let alone a second?

 

So. Airfix research and design a brand new ship kit, which by necessity can't be rough and ready as the 1960s and 1970s efforts. Because of that, it isn't going to fit into the £15 mark any more. It's nearer £60, perhaps more. Now be honest with yourselves. Brutally honest.  Would you still be tempted?

 

How many would pester for a new ship kit, then see the price but then suck their teeth and go 'well, I woullllld, butttt...'?

 

I'm trying not to look at this in isolation because the other side of the coin is that if Airfix produced a 1/48 Phantom or Buccaneer (or any other Fleet Air Arm craft) I'd be happy to pay up to around £60, though possibly no more. However, I'd imagine they'd sell far more of those than they would a ship model.

 

Airfix isn't benign or a charity, it has to make money to survive, and it will only do that on profitable sales. Yes they might make a loss on some items, but they need to be subsidised by others (like Spitfires) so at the end of the year they can write the sum in black, not red. No different to automobiles, perhaps designing and manufacturing new ship kits just can't be contemplated until things have stabilised and they can afford, if it's the case, to make a loss on ships with aircraft making up the shortfall.

 

It's simple economics.

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I don't buy from other manufacturers because they don't make 600 scale ships. I have at least two of each of Airfix's WW2 warships (4 Bismarcks). I've just shelled out £60 for the Victor and would happily make a similar investment in a state-of-the-art 600th Capital Ship. There are many RN subjects waiting to be kitted.

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I too only build 1:600 ships.  I find they are large enough to be more intersting than 1:700 and yet not so large, (as 1:350), that they cause storage problems. With 1:600 I can build a wide range of ships - I have 40 built and still have another 20 kits in my stash.  I've boosted the numbers through scratchbuilding.  It would be nice though to have some new 1:600 ships.  The QM2 kit was great ....though I don't really like the look of the real ship ....but there are soooooo many others.  A Queen Mary to go with the Queen Elizabeth would be nice  to say nothing about Ratch's Dreadnought ;)

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Edit:

I meant to say "No it's not unreasonable to ask..."

 

But equally it's not unreasonable for any kit company to look at it's balance sheet and think "we'll invest in what sells rather than trying to chase a market we're told will appear if we make the right kits..."

You are right. However, if I know 100 people, and someone else knows 100 people, and so forth, then there could be thousands of people who want new ship model kits.  You are assuming that Airfix has done in-depth market research and that there are no ship modelers "out there" who want new products.  The fact is that we exist, and we exist in numbers sufficient to generate profits for new products as evidenced by the profits being reaped by the other manufacturers.  There would be no new kits if there was no market. Yet, we prove time and again that we do exist in more than sufficient numbers.  I seriously doubt that Airfix has done thorough research. They do, in fact, keep releasing their tired old line of largely innacurate ships and expect us to keep buying them.

 

Their releases help to create a self-fulfilling prophesy.  Offer no new or newly tooled ships and there will be no buyers.  Then assume that there is no interest, so there is no action taken to improve upon the 1950s-era primitive kits.

I notice that Airfix keeps releasing newly-molded aircraft kits. I will make an assumption; if Airfix were to treat the aircraft modelers the same as they do ship modelers by doing nothing more than re-releasing the old 1950s-era kits, their sales would decline exponentially with the advent of competition around the world. They would go out of business.

Bill Morrison

 

I'd wager they most probably have "done thorough research" and it's based on numbers and feedback from the trade, rather than the vague anecdotal suposition of 100 modellers knowing 100 more etc...

 

"Offer no new or newly tooled ships and there will be no buyers."

 

They did. They ventured into 1/350 and released the Trafalgar class sub, Type 45 Frigate and HMS Illustrious - of those relatively new kits, only Illustrious remains. Obviously no kit company drops kits that are making money, so where were the 100 who know a 100 that you seem to think is a sound basis for throwing money on more of the same? And this comes back to what I originally said, that the kits have gone away because there isn't a strong enough market - or perhaps one that associated Airfix with ship models - to support a larger range. And in that regard I'm sure that decision is based on the best research available - sales numbers.

 

 

"I will make an assumption; if Airfix were to treat the aircraft modelers the same as they do ship modelers by doing nothing more than re-releasing the old 1950s-era kits, their sales would decline exponentially with the advent of competition around the world. They would go out of business."

 

You're right that is an assumption and one wholly disproved by the fact that for the best part of a decade or more, Airfix had to do just that, rely on reissues of old aircraft kits and (suprise surprise) Airfix remained entirely profitable - Humbrol did go into recievership but that was a complicated matter involving legalities with Heller, Airfix had still remained profitable.

 

 

 

Where have all the ships gone?  They've gone to Tamiya, Trumpeter, Dragon, Academy, Revell, Hasegawa, Aoshima,Italeri, Heller, and Fujimi. I'm sure there are other odd companies out there such as KiTech Lindberg, and others, but these are the largest and most common.  Airfix has "missed the boat," so to speak, and the others keep releasing new products at a rapid rate.  They would not do so if there wasn't a market for these products. The market exists; Airfix has ignored it.

Except they clearly haven't ignored it - they gave ship modellers subjects they wanted in the scale preferred and those kits are mostly no longer in production because, presumably, the market wasn't sustainable enough to keep those kits in production. 

 

 

And it's not unreasonable for any kit company to look at the numbers and think "well that didn't work out" and move onto more profitable subject matter. And yes, some kit companies have stronger markets for ship kits just like Airfix have a stronger market for aircraft kit than some of the ones you mentioned. It's not a one-size-fits-all market.

 

 

 

It's not rocket science, William. Where have the ships gone? Back into drydock until the tides are more favouable because a beached ship goes nowhere.

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Jonathon I re-itterate my posting earlier on in this discussion about the market for model ships. Th model ships website and forum is very lively and has new products the whole time, there IS a market for model ships Airfix just has to have the will. Personally I would never build a moden submarine to my mind if you've seen one you've seen them all; boring.

Airfix are famous for starting the plastic modelling industry in a big way and their main claim to fame was their aircraft, and especially the Spitfire and it's nice to see them continuing with that tradition. Lots of other manufactures have made the Spitfire especially in the early days like Frog, Matchbox and Revell and I've made several but hey just weren't Airfix. Having said that I hope Airfix continue to make aircraft ( and hopefully some German airfield support vehicles like the Kettengrad, VW jeeps and other support vehicles, like they’ve already done with the RAF and US bomber sets just please in 1/72 scale... 

I still think that Airfix could still have a market share in the ships, so hopefully we'llbe rewarded with a suprize, like the new releases recently announced.

Remember we do this for fun      John the Pom

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there IS a market for model ships Airfix just has to have the will.

But they also need the capital.

 

It's no secret that Airfix, or rather Hornby Hobbies, were having financial difficulties at one point. Granted that was overall and encompassed the other sides including model railways. I am no kind of accountant or anything, but it could be they didn't at that time, or don't at this time, have the money spare to effectively gamble on such an expensive project. After all, I'd  suggest that if there is a market for model ships, Airfix would have tapped into it. Perhaps they will in a couple of years, perhaps even as we discuss this they are researching a new vessel: don't forget, none of us will know as they play these things close to their chests.

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Jonathon I re-itterate my posting earlier on in this discussion about the market for model ships. Th model ships website and forum is very lively and has new products the whole time, there IS a market for model ships Airfix just has to have the will. Personally I would never build a moden submarine to my mind if you've seen one you've seen them all; boring.

Airfix are famous for starting the plastic modelling industry in a big way and their main claim to fame was their aircraft, and especially the Spitfire and it's nice to see them continuing with that tradition. Lots of other manufactures have made the Spitfire especially in the early days like Frog, Matchbox and Revell and I've made several but hey just weren't Airfix. Having said that I hope Airfix continue to make aircraft ( and hopefully some German airfield support vehicles like the Kettengrad, VW jeeps and other support vehicles, like they’ve already done with the RAF and US bomber sets just please in 1/72 scale... 

I still think that Airfix could still have a market share in the ships, so hopefully we'llbe rewarded with a suprize, like the new releases recently announced.

Remember we do this for fun      John the Pom

 

As I said in a previous post, it's not a one-size-fits-all market. Some companies have better traction with some subjects because of their retail reach or markets. Aoshima was mentioned - they clearly have more luck with ships than aircraft. Tamiya do ships, but they don't small small-scale armour like Dragon, Trumpeter and Revell. The list goes on, you will always find model companies that have areas and markets where sales and brand identity are strong for some subject matter but not others.

 

I think they proved the "will" with the 1/350 new tool kits - the fact that they've mostly now disappeared from the range and have not been followed up with more of the same probably tells its own story. I don't think it's a case they didn't try hard enough, they clearly did, but if you've dipped your toe into a market and it's not bouyant enough to float, where is the business sense in investing more of the same. And, alas, model kit companies down the ages have been burned by modellers talking up subjects as being the sure-fire kit that everyone wants, only for it not to pan out that way. I'd suggest googling 'Fine Scale Modeler poll' and the stories behind the /148 Catalina, Ju 52, Vigilante and 1/72 Stratocruiser.

 

Me personally? I'd love to see the 1/600 range expanded because Airfix have provenence in this scale, but you know people will then say that it should have been 1/700 or 1/350. Somewhere down the line there will always be the "ah but, it would have sold if only...".

 

Hate to say it, but the aircraft modellers are most probably more consistent in their purchases, and 1/72 and 1/48 are easier scales to cater for. And when it comes to business decisions, this whole Field of Dreams thing about "make them, and they will come" doesn't really make good business sense when you've already done that and they didn't come.

 

Plus, long story short, the trade know what sells better than any anecdotal conjecture on any modelling forum. If the trade are saying "those ships of yours didn't shift, can we have more aircraft?" the response isn't "no, you'll get more ships until the market appears", because no sane retailer is going to take on more stock they had trouble shifting in the first instance.

 

If the ships have gone but the aircraft dominate, it's because the aircraft modellers and market is more easier cater for, more relaible and - more crucially - more profitable.

And ultimately, it's a business, not a service.

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Jonathon I re-itterate my posting earlier on in this discussion about the market for model ships. Th model ships website and forum is very lively and has new products the whole time, there IS a market for model ships Airfix just has to have the will. Personally I would never build a moden submarine to my mind if you've seen one you've seen them all; boring.

Airfix are famous for starting the plastic modelling industry in a big way and their main claim to fame was their aircraft, and especially the Spitfire and it's nice to see them continuing with that tradition. Lots of other manufactures have made the Spitfire especially in the early days like Frog, Matchbox and Revell and I've made several but hey just weren't Airfix. Having said that I hope Airfix continue to make aircraft ( and hopefully some German airfield support vehicles like the Kettengrad, VW jeeps and other support vehicles, like they’ve already done with the RAF and US bomber sets just please in 1/72 scale... 

I still think that Airfix could still have a market share in the ships, so hopefully we'llbe rewarded with a suprize, like the new releases recently announced.

Remember we do this for fun      John the Pom

 

As I said in a previous post, it's not a one-size-fits-all market. Some companies have better traction with some subjects because of their retail reach or markets. Aoshima was mentioned - they clearly have more luck with ships than aircraft. Tamiya do ships, but they don't small small-scale armour like Dragon, Trumpeter and Revell. The list goes on, you will always find model companies that have areas and markets where sales and brand identity are strong for some subject matter but not others.

 

I think they proved the "will" with the 1/350 new tool kits - the fact that they've mostly now disappeared from the range and have not been followed up with more of the same probably tells its own story. I don't think it's a case they didn't try hard enough, they clearly did, but if you've dipped your toe into a market and it's not bouyant enough to float, where is the business sense in investing more of the same. And, alas, model kit companies down the ages have been burned by modellers talking up subjects as being the sure-fire kit that everyone wants, only for it not to pan out that way. I'd suggest googling 'Fine Scale Modeler poll' and the stories behind the /148 Catalina, Ju 52, Vigilante and 1/72 Stratocruiser.

 

Me personally? I'd love to see the 1/600 range expanded because Airfix have provenence in this scale, but you know people will then say that it should have been 1/700 or 1/350. Somewhere down the line there will always be the "ah but, it would have sold if only...".

 

Hate to say it, but the aircraft modellers are most probably more consistent in their purchases, and 1/72 and 1/48 are easier scales to cater for. And when it comes to business decisions, this whole Field of Dreams thing about "make them, and they will come" doesn't really make good business sense when you've already done that and they didn't come.

 

Plus, long story short, the trade know what sells better than any anecdotal conjecture on any modelling forum. If the trade are saying "those ships of yours didn't shift, can we have more aircraft?" the response isn't "no, you'll get more ships until the market appears", because no sane retailer is going to take on more stock they had trouble shifting in the first instance.

 

If the ships have gone but the aircraft dominate, it's because the aircraft modellers and market is more easier cater for, more relaible and - more crucially - more profitable.

And ultimately, it's a business, not a service.

Yet, Airfix does keep re-releasing its ships, even its sailing ships.  They always have the HMS Victory available, yet, if I already have two or three of them, there is no reason to purchase more of them.  I remember having this discussion with someone at Airfix several years ago.  He pointed out that Airfix was releasing two new sailing ships; the HMS Endeavor of 60 years ago, and the Mary Rose, a new kit.  I informed him that I already had a copule of Endeavors in the stash, but that many of my friends and I were very exceited about the Mary Rose until we found out that it was in 1/400 scale and had only 28 parts.  We bought it anyway just to encourage the industry, but it was a disappointing release at best.  We had hoped for a serious model not a toy.

John points out that the manufacturers have the appropriate research on which to base its decisions.  Yet, I can recall never having seen a survey from Airfix about ship choices, let alone sailing ships.  Indeed, I have seen many surveys about desired ship models, none of which asked about sailing ships.  I sincerely doubt that there is real research that pertains with this topic.  There is ample evidence that wood sailing ship kits sell regularly for over $1,000.  For example, the Amati HMS Vanguard has been selling at around $1,350.00 for almost ten years.  The Caldercraft "Nelson's Navy" kits continue to sell for that kind of price as well.  I'm sure that many would like to have the opportunity to purchase these ships in plastic for around $50.00, but no manufacturer has asked us.

John, you accuse me of making assumptions; I accuse you of the same.  You assume that I am among only a few who want such ships. You assume that there are few who share my interests, and you belittle many people that I have cited in my small circle as being irrelevant.  All I am recommending is that Airfix ask us about that which we would like to see.  I want them to conduct thorough research among people who share these interests.  You seem to want to deny us even that.

Bill

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I don't believe anybody is being belittled here, what some of us are suggesting is that manufacturing companies are sales driven and what doesn't sell doesn't get made. Here's a breakdown of one trader's sales at Scale Model World this year:

All Aircraft 42%, Civil Vehicles 25%, Military Vehicles 11%, Ships 10%, Figures 9% (of which military 7%), Space & Sci-fi 2%, Misc 1%.

If Airfix have become aircraft-centric whilst armour and ships get short shrift, the above may hold a clue.

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