Review of the Latest Sam's Trains Commentary on Hornby TT:120

[Rallymatt]

Hornby is a PLC, SK might have pushed for TT:120 but as Peter and others point out, the business proposal and plan will go through stages of analysis, it’s not the dumbed down process shown on the TV 🤣

TT:120 demand is not showing any significant signs of slowing and that’s during a financial downturn for most modellers. We don’t have precise figures showing sales breakdown but from comments made in last annual accounts by CEO and digging into the accounts, TT:120 sales are likely accounting for 20% of Group Revenues, that is significant. How much does OO bring in really? (After all the other brands have contributed) 
Fraser Group PLC, spending real money on shares is a sign of belief in the company. Their usual acquisition tactic is to wait until a firm is in administration and either bid to buy the business for pennies in the pound or simply buy Brands and IP. 

[Moccasin]

3 minutes ago, Rallymatt said:

Fraser Group PLC, spending real money on shares is a sign of belief in the company. Their usual acquisition tactic is to wait until a firm is in administration and either bid to buy the business for pennies in the pound or simply buy Brands and IP. 

Yes, as I pointed out elsewhere, Frasers have also bought a similar share in Curry’s. In both cases, they’re talking of their interests being related to synergies rather than being ready to pounce on a failing company. In fact, in both cases, the link seems to be with Game as well as leveraging existing logistics and distribution. Possibly they’re planning a new retail push and these shareholdings help to protect any investment in that brand—Game already sells Hornby Group’s products—or maybe Hornby’s logistics outsourcing contract is up for renewal.

[Postman On The Rails]

12 hours ago, GMD said:

Thanks for raising this GHU.

Yes of course Sam is only offering one view but it is greatly influential. Like GHU and others I think where he goes wrong is in the interpretation he makes of the data from his poll. It’s clear that other ways (and I’d suggest, much better ways) are not considered at all. It’s hard to get away from the sense that he used his polling to confirm his presuppositions instead of the other way around and let his view be informed by the data.

To me the key thing is the 6%. 6% of his tens of thousands of subscribers (if we extrapolate from those who actually polled) are now in the hobby simply because of TT120. That is a phenomenal figure. If TT120 is responsible for anything close to a six percentage point increase in the user base of this hobby that is tremendous and well done Hornby and Peco for finally expanding the base. I cannot think of a aisngle thing in thirty years that has had that impact. 
I left a comment on Sam’s channel along these lines. I think the fundamental misunderstanding for Sam is that TT is not in competition with OO. It’s in competition with non-modellers other options for hobbies. It’s a gateway to railway modelling. More modern. More accurate. More space efficient. More compatible. More compelling. That’s the pitch. It’s Hornby’s best bet in decades to break out beyond the traditional modeller and get new custom. If they succeed then it will do the entire hobby a massive favour. 

Good old confirmation bias with vastly skewed  statistics, not watched it but from the synopsis it seems to have fact checked certain items he is commenting on. When I make comment on things it’s always balanced and unbiased. 

[Postman On The Rails]

They featured him on then TV as well 

[HST Mainline]

My guess is that Sam's audience is mainly OO scale modellers. The results of his poll is not surprising to me. Of course, the majority will not consider TT scale, they are already invested in another scale. I bet you would get a similar result if you asked if anyone running OO scale was considering N scale. Some might, the majority? Definitely not.

You have to be careful what you conclude from a poll like that.

Personally, I don't like the silence that is coming from Hornby regarding TT. Silence is usually a bad sign, and every time they are asked about TT they give vague answers. I don't feel the enthusiasm and I do not like that.

My predictions:

April event will disappoint people. I get the feeling that people are hoping for all sorts of new announcements and everyone is hoping for the models they wish for. It is doomed to disappoint.

I predict one or perhaps two new models, and perhaps a couple of existing models in a different livery. That is it. I will not expect anything else, since the backlog of announced and not yet manufacturered items is huge, Hornby needs to focus on bringing those to the market before thinking of new items. 

I will recommend people to lower their expectations to an absolut minimum.

Of course, no matter what reason Hornby might give regarding the low number of new announcements, the YouTube channels will see this as a sign of impending doom for TT scale and report it as such.

My advise to Hornby:

Make sure no one has any doubt on your commitment to TT scale. There is nothing more important than that. How you do it? I don't know, but you need to do it.

[Rallymatt]

Seriously I wouldn’t get worried, YT is quiet for Sammy and the mortgage needs paying. As for Hornby, they are doing ok and we are getting a whole host of new toys to play with this year. Next phase announcements will probably come on 02/04/24 and be in line with the already announced future models (remember the launch brochure?) and a couple of not as of yet confirmed models will be announced. 
Quiz time; which model railway brand has announced more newly tooled models than Hornby in TT:120 since 10/10/22? 

[PeterM67]

I didn't realise the lover of carpets had run a poll until I saw his click bate offering and technically I'm a subscriber to his channel although TBH these days since I got into TT120 I rarely bother with it as reviews of OO gauge models are no longer an interest to me and that's ignoring a lot of his more childish content that seems aimed at 12 year olds - nothing wrong with that but I've not been in that demographic for a long long time!

I'm guilty of watching it so have contributed to his next mortgage payment and I also got very annoyed which was maybe his aim. He does have a very big investment in OO and therefore that is his target market. Sam doesn't want new entrants being tempted away from what he considers the light to the dark side as long term that's bad for business and there are lots of TT120 content creators just waiting to eat into his market share.

I'm also a little concerned about the reports that April will be very low key. Now I understand that 2024 is mostly taken up by the release of Phase 2 products so anything Phase 3 is likely to have a 2025 date and Hornby want to get away from announcing products with such a long lead time. However if they say nothing it gives the impression that the pipeline is running dry and gives more ammunition to the likes of Sam. Maybe they could announce some limited bulking out of the current range and give a nod to the future Phase 3 with a follow up announcement in a few months time that starts to bringing Phase 3 models.

[Moccasin]

Even if all April does is confirm dates for the next phase of models, as set out in the launch brochure, that will help people plan. I think Hornby are going for steady growth, which is fine by me (and my credit card balance). This year will bring steady growth but I think they want to avoid run away speculation about new models. Martyn Weaver told me in Glasgow on Friday that they want TT120 to grow sustainably.  Apart from anything else, they’ll need to keep stocks going for existing releases and they’ve said that they want to keep certain models permanently in the range. That re-stocking will use up manufacturing capacity, while model design can only go so quickly.

We have at least two new model toolings to come - the small steam locomotive and the Class 37, which we know is coming as there’s a TT sound profile in the list for arrival in Q2 2025. New liveries for existing models are also coming. I would expect no more than 3-4 brand new locomotive models per year in the future.

I’m sure there will be doom-mongers on April 2nd saying that Hornby/TT120 are finished - predicting the end of Hornby seems like a national sport after all - but that would be the case whatever Hornby do!

Edited February 25 by Moccasin

[Silver Fox 17]

How do the likes of Sam "get paid" because I am not a subscriber and certainly do not pay anything that I know of?

I keep away from all sites that say paid content as I certainly do not want to pay people to give me their own personal views.

I only looked at this one because of what was said on here. 

[Chris98]

Somebody may correct me....

 

You tube pay per the amount of views you get over a specific amount plus advertising generates money on top of product endorsements.

[LTSR_NSE]

The adverts!

Youtube gets money from the advertisers & pays content producers a percentage of this revenue based upon numbers of subscribers & numbers of views videos get.

[LTSR_NSE]

Sam also gets ‘donations’ from his subscribers & he uses ‘affiliate links’ to most of the products he reviews. (affiliate links are where the seller gives the person who links to their product a small finder’s fee for every sale they make from someone using that link.)

[John-L]

27 minutes ago, Silver Fox 17 said:

How do the likes of Sam "get paid" because I am not a subscriber and certainly do not pay anything that I know of?

I keep away from all sites that say paid content as I certainly do not want to pay people to give me their own personal views.

I only looked at this one because of what was said on here. 

YouTube pays per view over a certain amount.  So he should get something like £1 per 1000 views, or something like that.  He will be making a couple of hundred quid from each video.  
Honestly his subscriber numbers and viewing figures don’t seem high enough to generate a full time wage, so I’d suggest he is not having to pay for a mortgage or council tax etc.  

He shoots his videos in the attic of his parents house (based on what was shown on the TV show) so I guess he just needs to earn enough to pay them digs money?  That could be achievable with his viewing figures?

[HST Mainline]

1 hour ago, Moccasin said:

Martyn Weaver told me in Glasgow on Friday that they want TT120 to grow sustainably.  Apart from anything else, they’ll need to keep stocks going for existing releases and they’ve said that they want to keep certain models permanently in the range. That re-stocking will use up manufacturing capacity, while model design can only go so quickly.

This is good news to me. I have no problem with that. I would rather that they build up steadily and have a succes. Great input.

I might take the plunge and order the HST afterall.

[moawkwrd]

2 hours ago, HST Mainline said:

My predictions:

April event will disappoint people. I get the feeling that people are hoping for all sorts of new announcements and everyone is hoping for the models they wish for. It is doomed to disappoint.

I predict one or perhaps two new models, and perhaps a couple of existing models in a different livery. That is it. I will not expect anything else, since the backlog of announced and not yet manufacturered items is huge, Hornby needs to focus on bringing those to the market before thinking of new items. 

I will recommend people to lower their expectations to an absolut minimum.

Of course, no matter what reason Hornby might give regarding the low number of new announcements, the YouTube channels will see this as a sign of impending doom for TT scale and report it as such.

My advise to Hornby:

Make sure no one has any doubt on your commitment to TT scale. There is nothing more important than that. How you do it? I don't know, but you need to do it.

Isn’t that what most TT’ers are expecting though? An update, possibly release dates, on a couple of phase 3 or 4 models (since they’ve rejigged them a couple of times) per the existing catalogue, the new livery Class 08 and maybe another model, and the much rumoured tank loco. I don’t think many are expecting much more than that? An announcement bigger than that is approaching the scale of the original launch of TT:120 which wouldn’t make sense.

With the HST, Class 50, Princess, HAA hoppers, 57’ and Mk3 coaches - that’s plenty for anyone’s budget.

The best commitment to the range that Hornby could give on top of the above is perhaps announcing some new accessories - signals, track, buildings etc.

Edited February 25 by moawkwrd

[HST Mainline]

2 minutes ago, moawkwrd said:

Isn’t that what most TT’ers are expecting though?

I hope you're right. The majority of negative push back probably comes from OO'ers and N-scalers anyway.

[moawkwrd]

17 minutes ago, HST Mainline said:

I hope you're right. The majority of negative push back probably comes from OO'ers and N-scalers anyway.

Yes, you’re quite right. Most TT’ers seem happy with what is available whereas comments on Sam’s video from other scalers wouldn’t be happy unless Hornby matched the entirety of the back catalogue in other scales from day 1. Missing the wood for the trees really - any scale that brings new people into the hobby can only be a good thing. 
 

And let’s be real - most people entering the hobby today don’t have space for OO and even if they do, the bigger range of models isn’t immediately available new or used.
 

The real comparison for someone new to the hobby is what is available today from retailers and in that sense N and OO don’t have much bigger ranges than TT unless you want yet another obscure model with limited appeal or something that’s been done to death in a million liveries. The mainstays of people’s memories aren’t in stock - and I say that as someone also building an N gauge layout. Can’t get a BR green class 08 (as I type there’s one buy it now used on eBay) to fit my theme. I’m struggling to find a BR green DMU too. A lot of what is available is older than me and in poor condition.
 

People are completely disingenuous when they talk about the other scales having massive ranges of stock.

Edited February 25 by moawkwrd

[Hobby11]

4 hours ago, HST Mainline said:

Personally, I don't like the silence that is coming from Hornby regarding TT. 

What silence? They've said there will be an announcement in April so we won't hear anything before then. My take is that they've separated the 00 and TT announcements deliberately so as to reduce confusion from people (as there's overlap over the two ranges) and to ensure that any announcements fir one range are not swamped by the other range. Seems very logical. 

[Peachy]

At the end of the day it’s all about presentation. I reckon I could take 95% of his script and with only a smattering of tiny changes make it sound like TT120 is the best thing since sliced bread (which of course it is) 

I do wonder if he’s now just too big to even recognise the plethora of cracking stuff being produced by either small start-ups or private scratchbuilders? 

[HST Mainline]

1 hour ago, Hobby1707822967 said:

What silence? They've said there will be an announcement in April so we won't hear anything before then.

I see your point, but with silence I look at the bigger picture. They have dwindled down on lots of their marketing around TT and their promised YouTube videos never materialized. Personally, I would keep up the marketing pace to make sure everybody knows that I mean business with my new scale. At least for a while.

Edited February 25 by HST Mainline

[HST Mainline]

16 minutes ago, Peachy said:

I do wonder if he’s now just too big to even recognise the plethora of cracking stuff being produced by either small start-ups or private scratchbuilders? 

I get the impression that Sam would take any chance he can get to ridicule Hornby. It seems to be his thing. There are videos where he faults Hornby for making mistakes, that, in other videos, he does not fault other manufacturers for. He is definitely biased when it comes to Hornby.

[Robc058]

Also watched the review and left a comment. TT community is strong and growing. Hornby faces competition from other  OO producers and thus needs TT to succeed to grow its consumer base. 

[Simmo009]

Personally, 00 is my thing. I answered the poll and was in the majority. That being said, I think TT120 is marvellous, preferable to N in my opinion. Welcome to all that have come into the hobby off the back of its launch. Well Chuffed Model Railways uploaded today, looking at the 1976 Hornby & Mainline Catalogues. This was the launch year for Mainline. 5 locomotives (1 × diesel, 4 x steam), 4 coaches & 10 wagons. That was it. Where are they now? Oh, the kernel of Bachmann Europe. Anyone thinking Hornby should have had a large range from day one is an utter fool.

Regarding retail. Would retailers have had the space for what they would need to display? What would they take out to accommodate it? Would they rearrange their whole shop? Would they move to larger premises? I think no to all of these. Hornby held on to all of the risk at the start, and are now bringing Retail on board as the market develops.

I enjoy Sam's output usually, especially the more technical aspects of his reviews, but this latest from him is very poor, and does not reflect well on him.

Edited February 25 by Simmo009
Typo

[D9020 Nimbus]

New scales have often been introduced in the past with relatively small numbers of models. OO (Hornby Dublo) had just two — an A4 and the 0-6-2T (it was never "officially" an N2 and appeared in versions for all of the 'Big 4' — the purported GW 56xx version being "Swindonisec").

Triang launched TT3 with just one loco — the Jinty. IIRC Minitrix launched RTR N gauge in the U.K. with just the class 27. A lot of N gauge layouts of the time featured Western Scotland…

[Simmo009]

Whilst I am here, FYI, I am the chairman of the Stevenage & District MRC. We are close to finishing our new club main layout, which will include a 12m x 6m loop of TT120, so keep an eye on our website for the latest news on when this is ready. If your can get to us, you can give your little beauties a good runout.