Rumors of Demise

[What About The Bee]

It is often debated that the hobby is dying. 

Let me sort that with a bit of arithmetic. I placed an order in February of this year, as well as during the Black Friday sale. Hornby order numbers are sequential. That is, they have no reason to encrypt or otherwise scramble them. Just assign the order number to the orders, in the order received.

When I deduct one order number from the other, I obtain 71,671 orders in 285 days.

That is an order, just to Hornby, every 5 minutes 43.5 seconds. Around the clock. Not just business days or business hours. Not any other manufacturer. Not second hand. Just to Hornby, at list price.

Our hobby has a heck of a heartbeat.

Sorted.

Bee 

[Rallymatt]

Bee you can’t argue against that logic although there are plenty that keep trying 🤣

The success of TT:120 for Hornby has proved the hobby is alive and well and there are new avenues to explore and new modellers to welcome.

[Aussie Fred]

I concur with your figures in comparing an order from September 2022 to an order last week, I came up with nearly 109,000 orders and my orders are always over 500 pounds to get the free postage.

[HST Mainline]

I agree. Comparing with February 2023 to last month I get in the neighborhood of 61,000 orders.

I mainly order from the Hornby webshop for two reasons:

1. The Hobby Points. I think this is a great idea.
2. Hornby handles taxation for sending packages to the EU. They also flag the package as "tax handled" so it will not be held up in customs. This is such a great service, I know exactly what I pay up front. I don't order from other UK webshops, because there is always the element of surprise when the package arrives in customs.

The Hornby webshop is really great. I just wish they could hold back pre-orders due to arrive within a certain time frame. It is annoying having pre-ordered a bunch of coaches only to have them sent one at a time (at the same day) and pay three times postage. So I do not pre-order that much.

[DarkRedCape]

HST Mainline -

Hornby are pretty accommodating at refunding postage in situations like this. I ordered 9 of the Coronation Scot coaches, all on the same day, all from the same order, and they sent 9 individual boxes all with postage. Poor DPD driver had to scan them all.

Got in touch with Hornby, and even though their responses can be painfully slow, they didn't quibble and issued a refund for 8 coaches.

I don't use TT:120 and likely never will, but I wanted very much for it to be a success, because the better Hornby do financially, the better we are off as customers. They can hire more staff to handle packaging, deliveries, email responses, and invest in new tech that can get models to us from the drawing board to the layout faster.

I've seen the "our hobby is dying" in many many other hobbies, and none of them ever did.

[atom3624]

Thing is, why didn't somebody, or a 'database AI something' pick this up before packaging and shipping out.

Hornby will have lost quite a lot on that - glad you got refunded, quite right - so how can they 'expect to survive' with relatively basic oversights like this (9x LMS Coronation coaches shipped individually)?

Al.

[DarkRedCape]

I think in an email from Hornby regarding the Coronation Coaches, they said that pre-orders are dealt with individually on their system, regardless of whether multiple items are ordered at the same time.

So some jolly soul at Hornby gets an order for a single coach, goes and grabs it from the rack, wraps it, boxes it, puts on the shipping label, onto the next, all while their colleague next to them is doing the same with my other coach.

It does seem to be an odd and obviously inefficient system as it ends up costing them too. That’s 9x the boxes, tape, bubble wrap, label.

As for Bee’s original point, even if Hornby did run into such financial difficulty that they were “dying”, they’d just look for a buyer to be a parent company, which they’ve done before, then perhaps in greener times, buy themselves outright again.

[Simon-369848]

I am new to the hobby, I was attracted by the TT:120 range as I only have a small abode.

I have purchased 2 loco's so far, nothing else, as I am on a budget and intend to build up items slowly. And that is the rub of it, I really need to Hornby to exist long enough for me to accomplish my mission! With their share price languishing at 15-16p, I am concerned that making pre-orders could, potentially, not be fulfilled if Hornby cannot survive financially. However, companies that struggle can simply issue new shares (dilution) to raise capital. Result is that share price can simply halve though.

Talking of hobbies 'dying' yes, I have experienced this with my stamp collecting. I stopped collecting ages ago, tried to sell my KGVI collection and the market has bombed. Nobody is taking up the hobby anymore and the dealers have more stock than they know what to do with. Managed to finally sell to a private collector for a quarter of cat value. C'est la vie.

Good luck to everyone and have a wonderful Festive Season.

[Going Spare]

I believe contracts with logistics companies provide for only the first item for a particular destination to be charged at 'standard' rate with all additional drops at the same destination being charged a good bit cheaper. Also, it is possible that with the increasing amount of mail-order sales, Hornby specify that a percentage of the production run leaves China pre-packed in a mailing carton which may well be cheaper, despite slightly increasing the volume of the product in the shipping container, than doing so in the UK.

[Tony57]

Being in the hobby for a large number of years, how many times has Hornby changed owners, and it is still around.

As a hobby it must be healthy in the UK as there are so many new manufacturers entering the market place challenging the likes of Hornby, However what is effecting this great hobby is the price now being charged it will restrict the amount that one can afford to buy at both ends of the age range

As well as the high end super detailed stuff, there is a market for a cheaper entry level system that is robust enough for youngsters to handle, which parents need to be able to afford to buy, which will keep this hobby going. There needs to be a decent selection of stock for people to be able to buy from.

The real issue that is having a detrimental effect on the company is it's lack of a high standard of quality control, the poorer the QC the more unhappy modeler's are the less product sold as they go to other manufacturers. Sorry to say Hornby's QC standards are slipping going by the amount of complaints posted on this site.

[threelink]

Is this hobby dying? A lot depends on one's definition of this hobby. To me, it is modelling - by which I mean making things from scratch to create a miniature replica of the railway world. To others it is buying ready made items to achieve the same result. To yet more it is collecting ready made models to sit on a shelf and be admired. It's a broad church and I cannot see any sign of its demise as a totality. Certain elements may wax and wane - for example I find loco kits and r-t-r locos and stock unaffordable so rely on the availability of rubbish at train fairs and on auction sites to refurbish and cobble into models. Rubbish has become expensive so I have stopped buying. However I have plenty in hand and can wait for the rubbish market to drop back again to affordable levels. It does not mean that I have deserted the hobby nor the hobby me. To those who can afford current r-t-r prices I say more power to your elbows- long may you keep the manufacturers in business and cascade your older models down to the second hand market and ultimately to the rubbish market. The hobby will only die if all the major manufacturers find that they cannot make a profit by producing items at prices that can be afforded by the buying public, so go out of business.

[Rallymatt]

DRC makes an excellent thoughtful comment, TT:120 isn’t a range for Lee. But success across the Hornby Group benefits all the brands in the group. Whatever happens in the future with popularity of scales, I can’t see Hornby discontinuing OO, even if TT:120 become dominant and they have said as much. Anything that strengthens the team at Hornby is good.

In terms of share price, I have seen companies with values of Neg £billions have silly share prices and solid plodders with penny shares. The stock market is a gambling opportunity not a valuation of a company. Great book (Thinking fast and slow) by Nobel Prize winning Psychologists for their work in Economics showed this beautifully. When a share trade is made, one broker is getting out because they are ‘betting’ the price will go down, the buying trader is ‘betting’ the price will go up. The value of the company is a long term analysis of business performance but share prices are fluctuating by the second based on supply and demand. Remember the ‘Dot Com’ bubble, ‘Crypto’ ….

Playing trains is here to stay 🤣

I do think a more efficient logistics system would really boost Hornby. I do know there have been ‘system’ conflicts between Hornby’s sales system and the Logistics handlers system. Hopefully that’s something we will see resolved soon.

[atom3624]

I've just seen a photograph of an early prototype of a TT Duchess, on display at Warley.

There's a total lack of attention to detail for display purposes - the handrails were detached!!

Surely if putting on display, you'd ensure it's the best possible representation of your company and the model so far - is this one of the issues?

Al.

[Rallymatt]

Al, I understand where you are going but on a different tack, it’s a manufacturing sample so it’s very much a work in progress. I think it’s important that all model railway manufacturers educate their customers just how models develop. From many of the comments I have seen over past 12 months (since I returned to hobby) it obvious a large proportion have no idea how ‘manufacturing works’. No shame in showing a stripped down prototype, in my career I have stood next to many development mules 😁

[JJ73]

Very good Bee - you put a smile 😁 on my face 🚂

[AndyMac1707817969]

It’s a big mistake to confuse sales with profit. Companies can have high sales but it they are not making a profit then ultimately they are doomed. Many industries in Britain had full order books, shipbuilding being a good example, problem being they lost money on every order.

 

Counting the number of order number s Hornby goes through is misleading. One thing I have noticed when you place a preorder you get one order number, on fulfilment however a new order number is generated. Again counting orders today is not the issue, it’s what going to happen in 10 / 15 years’ time when the majority of those placing orders today may no longer be around.

[96RAF]

I've just seen a photograph of an early prototype of a TT Duchess, on display at Warley.

There's a total lack of attention to detail for display purposes - the handrails were detached!!

Surely if putting on display, you'd ensure it's the best possible representation of your company and the model so far - is this one of the issues?

Al.

 

 

Likely 3-d printed just to see if it fits the chassis and has all the correct general features. I have a couple of these early stage bodies and they are as soft as cheese so wouldn’t take fine detail.

[DarkRedCape]

I remember reading that the pandemic was very good for Hornby, and similar hobbies in general, simply because people were stuck at home and were ordering things online to keep themselves occupied.

I'm sure this boosted their coffers, as to how much, far smarter people than I might be able to glean this information online.

I've seen many threads like this in many different hobbies, and it never worried me for one simple reason. All of those hobbies had dozens and dozens of different manufacturers bringing out new products year on year, just like the model railway hobby. Can a single manufacturer go bust? Of course they can, but when you have a hobby with a myriad of different parties all seemingly releasing new products, it says to me the hobby is fairly secure.

[Brew Man]

I agree, though i don't think I've seen any indication of Hornby going bust. After all, they've been going in one form or another since 1923. flushed. They seem to have a great ability to metamorphose.

[Rallymatt]

Some brands have the ability to weather any storm. Aston Martin have never ever made any money in their history but still one of the most desirable brands. Hobby based companies alway tend to be in for the long haul, what is reassuring to see is how Hornby is looking to constantly evolve its offerings and not at the expense of customer service, which I think is exceptional.

Anyone else read the title thread and think…’oh no what has Denise been up to now?’

[Brew Man]

No, my eyesight's not that bad, RM sweat_smile

[atom3624]

Thanks RAF, I can understand the softer, more imprecise prototype 3D-printed bodies, but personally if I was presenting at a show, I would have made the effort to ensure the presentation was as good as possible - leaving handrails, however 'pinged' not in place is pretty poor (touch of glue would have helped).

Nit-picky perhaps, but first impressions are important - seeing that would have me thinking 'these people don't care', however premature the initial conclusion.

Al.

[96RAF]

Yes - you only get one chance to make a first impression. Important to remember that.