End of the line for model railways - or is it?

[JJ73]

I stumbled across this article from The Independent on Line / MSN.com...

End of the line for model railways? (msn.com) 🤔🚂

Also this from Samtrains...

🤔🚂

[Rallymatt]

I wouldn’t worry, the only people rattling on about various doom and gloom scenarios are trying to sell news articles or you tuber goons after your clicks.

Perhaps it’s true potential newcomers to the hobby are put off by a lot of the negativity and that’s a shame because real enthusiasts are very welcoming and positive

[What About The Bee]

Hiya JJ

To answer your question: NO!

But it is the end of the line for "journalists" who use clickbait to get views. There are any number of "journalists" who will present a nasty title, just to get you to come and see their ads.

Finally, I come to the fountains of negativity. The youTube self appointed guardians of model railways. The folks who must find something to criticize, to find fault with. How indeed would they get views unless they bad mouth a product.

I ignore them all. I've unsubscribed. I do not click on doom and gloom articles. I do not have the time of day for their so-called "independent reviews". Please tell me why there are affiliate links, if you are so darned independent. Peddle your advertisements elsewhere.

Bee

[AndyMac1707817969]

I sell a lot of model railway online (just as a hobby and to fund my new purchases as I have discovered a liking for Gauge 1) and sales have only been about half their usual amount since about July 2023. In the month of December I sold twice as much as I usually did in the same month in previous years and they are mainly from regular customers. During the pandemic sales went through the roof. It has now gone a bit quite again but still sales are coming in. I don’t think over the space of 6 months half the model railway enthusiasts have suddenly kicked the bucket, most people I sell too and the chats I have with them are of a working age, mainly in their 50s but there are younger ones. They are the ones with money and those in their 70s etc are the least likely to be spending significant amounts of money, most retailers are not going to miss those who think spending £5 here and there is too much. Just gone quite as so called public services such as the BBC have convinced many people there is a cost of living crisis. Don't want to sell too much anyway nowadays as along with this and my day job I refuse to pay the top rate of tax when you can't even get a GP appointment.

 

It was fine 20 years ago for model railway shows such as Warley to be the showroom for suppliers to advertise and launch new items. With the Internet they no longer need this type of event or the costs involved, a YouTube video is a lot more cost effective and reaches a much bigger audience. Model railways have been my hobby for over 50 years but I have never joined a club and have attended few exhibitions. Warley has taken quite a log of abuse over the years, expensive and not worth going to was quite often banded about. At the end of the day I can view layouts on YouTube and the only think I really miss out on is the Warley wagon which I can buy on eBay if I really wanted for twice the price but still cheaper than the petrol money. 

[JJ73]

@ Bee

Oh ok - so I shouldn't really read into what I read on line then - Just take it as a pinch of salt then!!! 🚂

[What About The Bee]

Hi JJ

Exactly!!

The journalists who say model "railways are dead" do not believe a word of what they say. They do want you to look at their advertisements. How can they do that? Make up some nonsense to get you to panic. "Oh No! I better read this" you say and end up looking at their advertisements.

Same thing for certain reviewers on youTube. Not you, of course, but others. They say ridiculous things to make you want to watch them. And they get paid. So honest in reviews, they use affiliate links, meaning they get a referral fee.

If you like the product, why listen to folks who just want to run it down.

Bee

[AndyMac1707817969]

At the moment there is just more supply than demand, unfortunately for those with the highest fixed overheads such as premises and wages they will be the least resilient. Hattons may well have seen no way to trade out of the position they are in and instead of running up huge debts often having to secured by personal guarantees from the directors as banks will often not lend or extend overdrafts to limited companies due to their limited liability, they have to be sure they can get their money back. Smaller business can generally weather it longer but it all comes down to how long the downturn lasts. On a positive it means the cake will be sliced between less retailers, this also means less competition or smaller retailers who have had to compete with those such as Hattons may well now be able to work with a higher margin. This means however that with less competition you may not get as many bargains.

As with most things in life what is good for one party is bad for the other and vice versa. Sales are not always a good thing, short term gain for the customer, long term problem for the hobby. Supporting your local model shop does not mean buying items at a price from which the retailer can hardly make a living. Few people nowadays however seem to care.

 

[What About The Bee]

Hello AndyMac

You wrote: "Supporting your local model shop does not mean buying items at a price from which the retailer can hardly make a living."

The local model shop is competing against the entire internet. The race to the lowest price for a common commodity. I can purchase Hornby R1234 from anyone these days. Every R1234 is the same, so why not purchase the cheapest. Or direct from Hornby. Frankly put, a retail shop of nearly any kind these days is in peril. No one promised the LMS a living wage. Where is it written that the LMS must survive?

But a retail shop is not "model railways". It may be what you associate with model railways, but it is not the thing. Model railways existed before the LMS. The LMS came about when a living in retail, purveying model railways, was viable. The LMS is not really viable against the internet. But that isn't the "end of the line for model railways", just the end of the line for some shops.

Neither are giant conventions "model railways". There were model railways before conventions and shows. Just as there will be after. Conventions are a business, not model railways.

Neither are railway modeling magazines, dying at a rapid rate because of the internet. They too, are not model railways.

Here is what I think "model railways" are: A model you build in your home. A pastime. If you build it and play with it, it isn't dead. Individual expression of creativity.

The businesses that spring up around model railways will come and go. Some last longer than others. Some are a flash in the pan. Others become institutions. None of them are guaranteed to survive. They are a business that provides a service and or product. When that isn't viable, they close.

A direct answer to JJ's titular question: "End of the line for model railways?"

Not for model railways, as long as there are individuals who build one. No, it is not the end of the line. Maybe for some businesses, making a meager living, selling meagers. But not for model railways.

Bee

[Aussie Fred]

Well said Bee. I used a local (on line) train shop and got stung when they went bust and lost my money on pre-orders, so I looked elswhere and "elsewhere" is getting me what I want, so no problems.

None of my family are slightest bit interest of taking over my layout when I cross the bar, but there will always be someone happy to take up the hobby, especially when all the hard yards are done.

[Simon-372339]

It's not the end but the 'pool' is shrinking.

It has always been a niche hobby needing space and money. If we consider modern UK housing every sq ft is utilised, lofts are no longer designed to be used for other purposes. So a prime consideration is space which rules out 00 leaving TT120. There is no cheap entry route to TT120, this becomes a gamble for the parents, big investment that little Timmy may become bored with after a week.

Bricks & mortar retailing is basically dead you can do everything online visting shops is now more a social function.

Rose tinted spectacles will go on about the good old days when they used to visit Bobs emporium of toys and games, missing the fact they weren't really that good as you didn't have a choice.

[ColinB]

Sam of Sam's train has a short YouTube video where he was commenting on the demise of Warley. Basically he was saying it has just got too expensive to attend. Now if you are a football follower or go to shows often, the prices he was quoting were in the same ballpark as going to one of those events but perhaps your average railway modeller just doesn't want to pay that sort of money. Perhaps it is going the same way as my other hobby, classic motorcycles. That too is expensive and when I first started building bikes there was virtually a bike show or autojumble every other week during the summer. Fast forward twenty years and now there are just a select few available. Years ago I was looking for a tank for one of my bikes and the Dealer was commenting that a recession was coming because as he said, "when people are short of money the hobbies go first". He was dead right six months later we were in a big recession.

[Moccasin]

The point that was missed in the article is that new alternatives to Warley are now annual events. Making Tracks in Chester has had 3 successful years and Hornby Magazine/Key World are marketing their Model World Live (though presumably not wholly model railways). I wonder whether it's more that Warley is finding it hard to compete with these other shows.

Other retailers seem to be managing and, in some cases, thriving.

I wonder if this is simply a significant shift and departure of two long-standing features of a hobby which is changing.

This time last year we had a trading update from Hornby but it's not been published yet - whether that's a concern or not I'm not sure, but it would be a different indicator of the hobby's health and would give a clue as to how changes such as TT120's influx of new and returning modellers affected their revenue and profit in the important Q3/Christmas period.

[atom3624]

The hands-on visit experience is without full replacement, but a 'virtual visit' could potentially be on the cards whereby key exhibitors could present their railways as they may have done if on site?

Understood there may be size constraints, but a virtual site can still be secured, give full marketing options and potentially a similar 'railway experience'.

Might be one option.

Al.

[Fazy]

Is the hobby dead? No there’s plenty of people still modelling. However I do think in the current economic environment we are going to see more companies go to the wall.

Who’s at risk? everyone is

modelers are a strange bunch me included, we want more detail but want it more robust. We want better quality of running but want it cheaper. We want that class but not in that livery. We want big ticket items, but need them to work on toy curves. We want it now and don’t want to wait because of research tooling etc needs to be carried out.

most of the well known one offs, have or are being produced, yes the are still a few but the numbers are getting smaller.

there are plenty of work horses left but they don’t carry the wow factor or have such a large demographic appeal.

cost is becoming a factor for the modeller is £160- 200+ really worth it for a up to date model especially if you already have one. Case in point the Accurascale 37. Lovely model I have one and have two more on order but at 3 ft on the layout the Bachmann (older tooling) is just has good.

so we have producing model railways locomotives

Accaurscale, Bachmann, Hornby, Heljan, cavalex, SLW, KRModels, Dapol, rapido and revolution.

any of these could go under,

SLW dose some beautiful models but how many class 24 & 25 does anyone need? The market for other diesel is pretty sown up.

Accurascale do brilliant models, but still a young company and production of large batches works for the customers but if they don’t sell for what ever reason it could send the company to the wall.

arguments can be made for any of these companies.

Hopefully they will survive but don’t be shocked a few do shut up shop over the next few years. Coming out of an economic downturn can be more dangerous for companies.

[Rallymatt]

Bee and Fazy are on the money with these comments and it restored my faith that real modellers/enthusiasts see through the froth.

Ironically you could replace the words ‘railway modelling’ with ‘cycling’ and you would have a very similar piece from just before Christmas on the state of bicycle industry and sport 🤣

Replace LMS with LBS (local bike shop), local Butcher, Baker, Pub, nothing stays the same forever 😁

[BritInVanCA]

As others have said “No” but I think we can’t be complacent. Getting the younger generation into the hobby is critical otherwise it will literally die off. Warley couldn’t find a younger generation to take over and is that any wonder. We all need to be more welcoming and less elitist. Also manufactures need to fill the need for entry level models. Hornby is trying to do this with Railroad and they talked about it a lot on the launch Q&A so hopefully they understand.

The general press is just looking for doom and gloom headlines. I did cringe when you brought up YouTube. There are some big detractors on this forum and especially when it comes to the person quoted who, ironically, is in the demographic needed for the hobby to survive

[The son of Triangman]

I see another retailer is giving up in the west country

[Tony57]

Hi

The answer is no but it will go into a massive decline as us older ones get off the train of life. How many of the brands the Hornby group holds will still be around 5 years from now? There are youngsters getting into model railways like a lot of us will leave and come back later. In my latest copy of the TTRCA mag showed a very young person learning about and using the Trix Twin Track system, which is older than Tri-ang and Hornby Dublo. Another article was about a youngster showing a TTR layout at a club exhibition.

 

[ModelerXYZ]

It isn't the end of the line yet. But the rising prices of models mean that new models are unobtainable for a lot of us. I am ok because I have an established amount of rolling stock and also quite a few locos. But I can't really afford to add extra trains to my railway. As I recently took the step to go back to digital, I now need to buy some more DCC decoders, both for trains and accessories. But could a manufacturer go to the wall? Absolutely they might. High prices mean that those who are not high income earners, which includes a lot of younger people and people like me who have other responsibilities (house, Car, ect) cannot afford to buy brand new stuff to keep the manufacturers in business.

XYZ

[Bulleidboy]

A rather dramatic title to this thread? One major retailer decides to call it a day, and one major "club driven" show decides to stop and it is the end of railway modelling. Lets review in a years time. Good reasons have been given for both of the above situations - I see no reason for doom and gloom yet. The articles written report on "clubs and societies" losing members - there are probably hundreds even thousands of railway modellers out there, like me, I don't belong to a club, I go to very few exhibitions/shows, and I buy, usually whatever I want online. So lets not go overboard on it being the end of the hobby.

[ColinB]

Well if a certain manufacturer doesn't learn by their mistakes who knows. The packing on the W1 locos was very suspect so a lot got damaged. Next set of loco packaging improved dramatically, so no issues. Reading reports on RmWeb of Hornby Dublos being damaged, mine was ok but the packaging had reverted to that of W1 plus the "ice pack" won't let you fit the brake rodding and fit the loco back into it. Go back to previous release of Hornby Dublo Sir Nigel Gresley and "ice pack", this allows you to fit the rodding. So basically Hornby has gone backwards and on their maximum revenue loco, where its retail price is £300 plus. Those are not the types of mistakes you make in this current economic climate.

[LTSR_NSE]

A rather dramatic title to this thread?.. Good reasons have been given for both of the above situations - I see no reason for doom and gloom yet... I don't belong to a club, I go to very few exhibitions/shows, and I buy, usually whatever I want online. So lets not go overboard on it being the end of the hobby.

 

 

Hear hear @BB - I have a strong aversion for almost anything that would usually be described as a social activity. (This aversion extends to most forms of Social Media.) I have therefore never visited a club, exhibition, event etc.

I like, enjoy & appreciate fora precisely because they have rules, structure & expectations of communication etiquette. I am also much happier & comfortable with shopping online or by telephone. I very much doubt I would be anything like as involved in this hobby as I am, if I was still required to physically go places and interact with people directly.

I am sorry that some model shops & event organisers are struggling with viability issues & finding it impossible to find anyone willing to take on the responsibility - but this happens in all fields & doesn’t always immediately precede an apocalypse!

[Topcat2018]

I don't think that railway modelling is dying, but it is a hobby that is becoming too expensive for many people. I probably don't help because almost all the stuff I buy is second hand, since I simply can't afford to buy a loco that costs the best part of a month's state pension.

The demise of Hatton's is sad as they were one of the biggest suppliers and you could often pick up bargains there.

[Barry-350851]

Railway modelling will never die as long as we have railways, but it will change. Undoubtedly, boomers have been the biggest generation in terms of numbers (absolute &) of modellers. Boomers also have greater disposable income in retirement than any generation that follow them will have. (observation, not criticism)

There will still be modellers in the following generations, but they won't be as numerous nor affluent, manufacturers will have to adapt to this.

They will have to make a model platform last longer before a revamp so the regularity and progress of new models will be a lot slower. We'll probably see a lot of the top models now hanging on for decades.

I'd say we've been in a golden age of progress for model railways for the 20 years.

Competition is strong, Hattons were once the only -10% box shifter and got a lot of criticism for taking business away from local model shops. Now I can name several so things are bound to be tougher. They've also made a couple of mistakes along the way too (observation, not criticism).

There will probably be changes to the exhibition circuit, Warley was fairly unique in being a big venue event arranged by a single club. ModelRail Scotland is arranged by an association of many clubs so more likely to find the human resources. That may not be a bad thing, some of the small and mid-size exhibitions are better than the huge ones.

[threelink]

A bit late to this thread but I don't see the hobby showing any signs of contraction. It's sad but inevitable that long established institutions will fade away but the hobby seems vibrant enough. Verified circulation figures for RM are 30,000 and the magazine's advertising pages show many small independent businesses looking for custom. Problems seem to arise when one organisation corners a market by acquiring smaller concerns and then goes pop - a bit like the car industry in the 60s and 70s. Between them, Hornby and PECO own quite a few brands but if either went to the wall (Heaven forbid) I am sure that potential buyers would emerge for the "famous names". Warley got very big but I don't see that its decision not to carry on means that other shows will cease. If the demographic changes substantially the things might be different but for the moment I do not see cause for concern, except for the growing cost of it all - which is avoidable.